Why 2012 Is Even More Important Than You Think

The Supreme Court of the United States
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- Courting the Future of Our Nation: The US Supreme Court in Obama's Hands -

You think you're taking the 2012 elections seriously. You're already paying attention. You're months ahead of your neighbors and friends. This makes you, my friend, an opinion leader. So you need to grow into your burdensome responsibilities.

Four more years of a Presidednt Barack Obama and a US Congress that, regardless of majority, hungers for re-election at the expense of good policy may cause repercussions for decades.

What if the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) approves Obamacare? Four years to implement this resounding death knell for American business and it will be too late to make the needed corrections without a chain reaction of tumultuous results. Are you counting on the SCOTUS to save our bacon? Look, I don't care what your local Constitutional expert says, there have been enough questionable decisions in the past few years that I am dubious, e.g. Kelo vs City of New London, Connecticut.

And speaking of the SCOTUS, how many appointments will be made in the next four years? Are you ready to see an Eric Holder court? Four of the nine justices are septuagenarians. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg will be 79 in March just a few days after Justice Antonin Scalia turns 76 and just four months before Justice Anthony Kennedy's 76th birthday.

Justice Ginsberg is a sure far-left vote on the court and so an Obama replacement for her would not change any decisions, but would ensure a far-left justice on the court for three more decades. Ginsberg would be nearly 84 at the end of a second Obama term. The possible replacement of the next two justices would make a huge and immediate difference.

Scalia is not only a consistently conservative vote, he is an intellectual heavyweight. Even Scalia's dissenting arguments are hailed as important and he is a measuring stick for conservative thinkers. Antonin Scalia's loss would be a devastating blow to conservatism, but his replacement with a progressive justice would result in a clear loss for original interpretation of the Constitution.

Justice Kennedy is a swing vote on the court, though he has often voted with conservatives on the more straightforward issues. A Kennedy replacement would mean a different court altogether. If still on the bench, Scalia and Kennedy would both be 80 at the end of another Obama term.

Stephen Breyer is only 73, but if he is still on the court, he would be 78 in August 2016. Justice Breyer is a steady political liberal and a replacement by Obama would not greatly alter the court, but again his replacement would almost certainly guarantee another 30 years of leftist representation in our highest court.

How would one more Obama appointment change our lives? Look at District of Columbia v. Heller, which established that individuals (not as a part of a militia) have a right to possess firearms as the second amendment states. It was a 5 - 4 decision and one more liberal on the court would have reversed that decision and forever altered the meaning of the Bill of Rights.

The next US President could very well appoint four US Supreme Court Justices, though my guess is that Ginsberg is so political that she will step down before the end of President Obama's term if he loses the 2012 election. If that happens, Republican Senators should hold the line and allow no permanent appointments by President Obama under the circumstances. He has already made two US Supreme Court appointments in Sonia Sotomayor, aged 57, and Justice Elena Kagan, aged 51. This alone would be more than enough from a one-term, once-in-a-century, American electoral mistake.

This is the first in a series on why the 2012 elections are more important than one might think. I envision them being an irregular feature, which means that I'll write them as they come to me, but they will come out over the next few months. I don't have very long to write them because they need to be read and November is coming.

By Ken Carroll

UPDATE: Why 2012 IS Even More Important Than You Think 2 is now available.